Last edited Thu Feb 16, 2023, 08:17 AM - Edit history (2)
Name recognition matters with such an open question. I think the percentage of don't knows reflects that and the attention span of the Scottish media and its obsession with Sturgeon, let alone the UK media's, and the lack of public profile of some of those named, let alone the fact that nobody has thrown their hat in the ring yet.
As a party member who pays a fair bit of attention to Holyrood, I know the main figures ranked, though I've had to remind myself who McAllan and Gray are.
Kate Forbes is impressive. She stepped into the gap at Finance and Economy at very short notice when the previous ofiecebearer stood down suddenly in disgrace, and mastered her brief more or less overnight. She speaks well and is extremely smart, but I don't know how broad her appeal would be. She's not long married and has a very young child, so I don't know whether she'd be open to the idea of taking on such a demanding post as FM at this stage in her life. Her constituency's around Skye, so unless she decamped her family nearer Edinburgh, there'd be a lot of travel involved on a weekly basis.
Swinney would no doubt be a safe pair of hands. Normally mild-mannnered, he can rouse quite an impressive degree of righteous passion and fire when goaded by the Tories. He's the current Deputy First Minister, and led the party from 2000 to 2004, though not to any great effect in the political environment of the time.
Angus Robertson was leader of the SNP's Westminster party until 2017, when he lost his seat, and deputy leader of the SNP from 2016 to 2018, later winning a seat at Holyrood in the 2021 election. I have a lot of time for him for various reasons, but I don't know how inspiring a First Minister he'd be.
Keith Brown has been around the leadership circles for some years. Though competent, I wouldn't say he's charismatic. Neil Gray's inclusion surprises me a little, as he's not exactly been high-profile during his terms at both Westminster and Holyrood.
Màiri McAllan (it might have helped if the pollsters had spelt her name correctly) is another quite dynamic youngish woman (aged 30, compared to Forbes at 32) who comes across well in televised debates etc., but I've not seen anything of her so far that makes me think "leader".
The inclusion of Westminster MPs like Stephen Flynn seems surprising as the general assumption is that the party leader should be an MSP. He's made a solid start as Westminster leader, but it's too early to say what impression he'll make on the wider electorate in Scotland.
I've seen other names bandied about online, like Mhairi Black, now deputy leader at Westminster under Flynn, but I think that is more a question of name recognition and admiration for her plain-speaking style. Personally, I think she wouldn't be a good fit for SNP leader and wouldn't thrive within the confines of the role.
So it's all going to come down to the hustings and what sort of slate of candidates we end up with. There are a number of other MSPs who could conceivably work well in the role, but the question the party needs to ask itself is what sort of leader it wants at this stage. I'd probably be more open to another female leader than a male one because that dynamic seems to throw the opposition off its step, but it would obviously depend on who the woman was.
I guess there's also a question about whether the party leader should also be the SNP's leader at Holyrood. I don't think there's any constitutional reason why they have to be the same person (the post of First Minister is directly elected by all sitting MSPs), and the posts of deputy SNP leader and Deputy First Minister have been held by separate people in the past. There might be some merit in splitting the roles if a referendum campaign is in the offing.
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