Dear Dodger fans: A few words of warning from Lt. Commander Spock

[303squadron]

Several studies, including one by Bill James, have shown conclusively that peak athletic performance in baseball happens by age 29. Ohtani is 29 this year. He'll be on the shelf when it comes to pitching until next year, when in early July, he will turn 31.

Yamamoto has yet to record an out in the Major Leagues!


"After a time, you may find that having is not so pleasing a thing after all as wanting. It is not logical, but it is often true." Lt. Commander Spock

[True Dough]

1. C'mon, Spock!

It's ONLY a billion dollars, most of it deferred for a decade. Surely, management knows what they're doing.

[ColinC]

3. Ticket sales

Nothing more nothing less

[nightwing1240]

2. At the age of 42. Nolan Ryan won 16 games and struck out 301 batters

Lots of other players have done very well in their 30's and older. Ohtani could easily win 20 games in that lineup while blasting 30 or more homeruns. Yes, he is THAT good

[303squadron]

6. Many can produce in their 30's, more don't

I don't think I would compare any pitcher to Ryan who is a statistical abberation. I mean, on one side of the bell curve there is Ryan, and on the other side of the bell curve are the hundreds of talented pitchers who never again regained their form in their 30's after an arm injury.

Oh, don't get me wrong here. I think Ohtani is a tremendous talent, no doubt about it. And from a purely business decision I think the Dodgers will do well in marketing and TV rights. But from a baseball point of view it is highly unlikely that he will ever again produce the 10.05 WAR that he produced 2023.

Will the Dodgers off season signings equate to winning the World Serious? That would be saying that you take them over the rest of the field. With the vagaries of the season and the playoffs I'll take the rest of the field. Plus, they still have to overcome the negative WAR of Dave Roberts - that alone may be insurmountable!

Yours truly,

Buzz Capra

[nightwing1240]

8. And that is why we play the season and see what transpires

That is the beauty of sports. I am a long suffering Browns fan and had someone told me they would lose Nick Chubb, Watson and several other key starters and would still make the playoffs I'd have asked what drugs they had been ingesting. Yet on the arm of 39 year old Joe Flacco here we go Brownies, here we go!

[ificandream]

13. Roberts is a terrible manager.

[ProfessorGAC]

9. Hundreds Of High Level Players Have Had GREAT Success In Their 30s

James, btw, doesn't say that.
29 is the point where a player HITS his peak, statistically speaking.
The vast majority stay on that plateau for a few to many years.
Teams have been signing 30 something free agents the entirety of the sabremetrucs era.
I believe you are grossly misinterpreting the data.

[303squadron]

10. I dont think so

The plateaus you speak of are far more often at a performance level less than their prior to age 29 accomplishments.

I'm willing to spend a lot of cash on a bet that Ohtani will not produce the 10.05 WAR in either 2024 or 2025 that he produced in 2023. Regression toward the mean meets arm injury baby!

Also, while it may be old data, a James study from an Abstract pointed out that 85% of free agent signings had a performance decline in the year they signed big contracts.

Finally, nothing in baseball happens in a vacuum. According to the transaction wire even today, I see a NL team making counter moves to negate left-handed power.

[ProfessorGAC]

11. I Read James Regularly

I'm a former member of S.A.B.R.
I got interested in predictive analysis of sports a few years after I got Mt MS in statistics. That was just as James started getting people's attention.
I still don't think you're interpreting the information correctly.
Had you said 34, there's no question you'd be right.
And, don't get me started on WAR. It's an overly manipulated statistic, and the big 3 advanced metrics outfits all calculate it differently.
It's fraught with questionable mathematical steps that are normally anathema to indices. They manipulated the stats until the right historical players rose to the top. Terrible contracts.
In addition, remember that in Japan, he only averaged 83 games per season, and only once went over 100 games played. He has somewhat less wear & tear than many 29 year old star players. Close to 2 MLB seasons worth. Plus, he was mostly a DH when not pitching fir the Angels. Again, less wear & tear per season.
Look, I'm not saying LAD is going to get their money's worth, at east on the field. I'm not a fan of super long-term contracts. I'm glad my Cubs bowed out.
But, you can't place Ohtani on the same statistical track as the preponderance of MLB stars. Too many differences to ignore.

[303squadron]

12. You might be right, but......

By what ever means you use to determine value, like WAR, Ohtani will not produce the same value in 2024 as he did in 2023.

1. Part of his value in 2023 was pitching which he won't be doing in 2024.
2. The previously mentioned James article on the decline in performance on the first year of a free agent contract.
3. Regression to the mean pulls at every player, HOFer or not.
4. Park effects will negate his home run production since its easier to hit a dinger in the Angels Park for a lefty than it is in Dodger Stadium.

On the other side of the ledger is his considerable talent plus the fact that he has less wear and tear on his body for a 29 year old. But not less enough to prevent his current arm injury! Father Time has already sunk his first claws in the lad.

[Bristlecone]

4. If he is 29 now, how does he turn 31 in July?

Do they mean 2025 as “next year”

[303squadron]

5. Yes

[usonian]

7. Farhan learned by signing recovering surgical cases. They were mediocre at best.

Sign young players to win and augment with some veterans. (healthy ones)

It won three WS championships.